Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
12%
Manifold
6%
Polymarket
14%
other2 sources$28.9M9pp gap
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
7%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
7%
aiPolymarket$9.7M
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
7%
— 0ppPolymarket
7%
geopoliticsPolymarket$9.4M
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
37%
Predictit
46%
Polymarket
36%
Manifold
30%
politics3 sources$3.3M16pp gap
Brazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
42%
Flávio Bolsonaro
33%
Romeu Zema
8%
politics14 candidates +11 more$68.8M+$3.2M/24h
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin Newsom
24%
Kamala Harris
9%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
9%
politics44 candidates +41 more$1141.3M+$3.0M/24h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
9%
— 0ppPolymarket
9%
cryptoPolymarket$2.9M
2027 Pro Basketball Champion
San Antonio
24%
Oklahoma City
22%
Philadelphia
10%
sports30 candidates +27 more$2.7M
Iran leadership change by December 31?
34%
Polymarket
34%
geopoliticsPolymarket$2.4M
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
5%
otherPolymarket$2.2M
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
16%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
16%
politicsPolymarket$2.1M
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
74%
↓ 5ppPolymarket
74%
politicsPolymarket$2.1M
Next French Presidential Election
Jordan Bardella
24%
Édouard Philippe
20%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
10%
politics36 candidates +33 more$70.9M+$2.0M/24h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
24%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
24%
geopoliticsPolymarket$2.0M
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance
19%
Gavin Newsom
17%
Marco Rubio
13%
politics36 candidates +33 more$580.6M+$1.8M/24h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
16%
Polymarket
16%
politicsPolymarket$1.7M
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
62%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
62%
geopoliticsPolymarket$1.7M
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
12%
— 0ppPolymarket
12%
politicsPolymarket$1.4M
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
57%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
57%
geopoliticsPolymarket$1.3M
2026 F1 Drivers Champion
Kimi Antonelli
38%
George Russell
30%
Lando Norris
12%
sports22 candidates +19 more$148.0M+$1.1M/24h