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Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 Masters tournament?

0.8%
Consensus Probability (Model B — Geometric Mean of Odds)
2 platforms · 2pp spread · $848K

Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 Masters tournament?" has a consensus probability of 0.8%. Polymarket: 0.4%, Gemini: 2.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
View →
0%
$848K
Gemini
View →
2%
Probability Over Time
All 6 Consensus Models
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 9h ago
Volume
$848K
Liquidity
$213K
Bid / Ask
0.3% / 0.4%
Spread
0.1%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Apr 2026
This polymarket will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 Masters Tournament. If this player is eliminated from contention for The Masters based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No". In the event of a tie, this market wi…
Gemini
Updated 50m ago
Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
—
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Apr 2026

About This Consensus

Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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