Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
11%
Manifold
4%
Polymarket
14%
other2 sources$28.9M10pp gap
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
21%
Manifold
15%
Predictit
19%
Polymarket
24%
politics3 sources$25.2M9pp gap
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
14%
Predictit
15%
Polymarket
17%
Gemini
10%
Manifold
10%
politics4 sources$16.5M7pp gap
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
3%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
Manifold
5%
Predictit
5%
politics3 sources$15.1M3pp gap
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
39%
↓ 0ppManifold
47%
Predictit
41%
Polymarket
36%
politics3 sources$12.9M11pp gap
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
19%
Predictit
21%
Polymarket
19%
Manifold
21%
Gemini
21%
politics4 sources$12.1M2pp gap
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
13%
— 0ppPolymarket
13%
Predictit
13%
Gemini
15%
Manifold
9%
politics4 sources$9.9M6pp gap
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0%
— 0ppPolymarket
0%
Gemini
2%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$9.7M2pp gap
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
Gemini
2%
sports3 sources$9.7M1pp gap
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
2%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$8.9M2pp gap
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
2%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$8.8M1pp gap
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
Gemini
2%
sports3 sources$8.7M1pp gap
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
Gemini
26%
Manifold
1%
Predictit
2%
politics4 sources$7.9M25pp gap
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
5%
Gemini
6%
Manifold
3%
Predictit
4%
politics4 sources$7.5M3pp gap
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
0%
Polymarket
0%
Manifold
0%
Gemini
2%
sports3 sources$7.0M2pp gap
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3%
— 0ppManifold
3%
Gemini
3%
Polymarket
3%
Predictit
4%
politics4 sources$6.4M1pp gap
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
32%
↑ 4ppPolymarket
42%
Manifold
25%
Gemini
17%
Predictit
15%
politics4 sources$5.4M28pp gap
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
71%
↓ 10ppManifold
74%
Polymarket
67%
Gemini
82%
Predictit
75%
politics4 sources$5.4M16pp gap
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
Predictit
4%
Gemini
6%
Manifold
2%
politics4 sources$4.5M3pp gap
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
84%
↑ 3ppManifold
98%
Polymarket
72%
economics2 sources$4.1M25pp gap