Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
12%
Manifold
8%
Polymarket
14%
other2 sources$28.9M7pp gap
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
25%
— 0ppGemini
40%
Manifold
39%
Polymarket
18%
sports3 sources$27.7M22pp gap
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
23%
Manifold
24%
Predictit
21%
Polymarket
24%
politics3 sources$25.2M3pp gap
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
16%
— 0ppManifold
16%
Gemini
16%
Polymarket
16%
sports3 sources$21.9M0pp gap
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
12%
Manifold
19%
Gemini
18%
Polymarket
9%
sports3 sources$19.1M10pp gap
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
13%
Gemini
15%
Manifold
15%
Polymarket
11%
sports3 sources$18.4M4pp gap
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
15%
Predictit
16%
Polymarket
17%
Gemini
11%
Manifold
14%
politics4 sources$16.5M6pp gap
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
37%
↓ 0ppManifold
41%
Predictit
37%
Polymarket
36%
politics3 sources$12.9M5pp gap
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
19%
Predictit
22%
Polymarket
19%
Manifold
19%
Gemini
20%
politics4 sources$12.1M3pp gap
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
Gemini
2%
politics3 sources$10.8M1pp gap
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
14%
— 0ppPolymarket
13%
Predictit
17%
Gemini
16%
Manifold
13%
politics4 sources$9.9M4pp gap
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
Gemini
4%
Manifold
1%
Predictit
2%
politics4 sources$7.9M2pp gap
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
5%
Gemini
5%
Manifold
3%
Predictit
4%
politics4 sources$7.4M2pp gap
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3%
— 0ppManifold
3%
Gemini
4%
Predictit
4%
Polymarket
3%
politics4 sources$6.4M1pp gap
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
51%
↑ 4ppPolymarket
42%
Manifold
68%
Gemini
62%
Predictit
65%
politics4 sources$5.4M25pp gap
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
30%
↓ 10ppManifold
18%
Polymarket
33%
Gemini
26%
Predictit
33%
politics4 sources$5.3M15pp gap
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
Predictit
4%
Gemini
4%
Manifold
2%
politics4 sources$4.4M2pp gap
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
68%
↑ 3ppManifold
52%
Polymarket
72%
economics2 sources$4.1M20pp gap
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
4%
Polymarket
2%
Gemini
14%
Manifold
15%
sports3 sources$3.8M14pp gap
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
19%
↑ 7ppPolymarket
32%
Predictit
2%
Gemini
16%
politics3 sources$3.4M30pp gap