Across 4 prediction market platforms, "Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" has a consensus probability of 2.9%. Manifold: 3.4%, Gemini: 2.5%, Polymarket: 2.9%, Predictit: 4.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 4 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.