AI-generated daily analysis from 1059 consensus questions across 6 platforms.
Generated 2026-04-14 · Powered by Claude Sonnet
Rory McIlroy's 2026 Masters odds exploded 64 percentage points to 8% consensus today, driven by Polymarket's 100% pricing versus more conservative 34-36% on other platforms. Sports betting dominated the biggest movers, with hockey matchups seeing dramatic 46-48 point swings as games approached. Meanwhile, Hungary's political transition played out as expected with Péter Magyar confirmed as the new Prime Minister.
The 64-point surge to 8% consensus reflects massive platform disagreement, with Polymarket at 100% while Gemini and Manifold price around 34-36%. This suggests either a significant news development or potential arbitrage opportunity.
The over probability jumped 60 points to 47% consensus, with Polymarket at 100% and Gemini at 81%. This dramatic move likely reflects updated weather conditions, pitching changes, or injury news affecting the total runs expected.
The 48-point rise to 74% consensus shows strong agreement between Polymarket (100%) and Manifold (99%). This suggests compelling pre-game developments favoring one team significantly.
The 46-point drop to just 11% consensus, with both Polymarket and Manifold near 0%, indicates major news breaking against the favored outcome, possibly key player injuries or lineup changes.
Similarly collapsed 46 points to 16% consensus with platforms pricing at 0-1%, suggesting parallel developments affecting this matchup's expected outcome.
A 48-point gap exists with Gemini showing conflicting signals (60% vs 17%) while Manifold sits at 47%. The disagreement likely stems from different assessments of Styles' college performance trajectory and NFL readiness.
Platforms split 47 points with Manifold at 74% versus Gemini's contradictory 86% and 40% prices. This reflects uncertainty about OpenAI's development timeline and the definition of 'release' versus limited availability.
A 39-point spread between Polymarket (70%) and Manifold (35%) highlights different expectations about both companies' delivery schedules. The comparison depends on highly uncertain development timelines for both products.
Markets correctly predicted the end of Fidesz-KDNP's parliamentary dominance with 0% final probability.
Magyar's ascension was essentially certain with 99% final probability, confirming Hungary's political transition.
Scott was eliminated from Masters contention as expected, with markets pricing only 2% probability.
Woods also ruled out of Masters competition, matching the 2% market expectation.
Lowry eliminated as predicted with 0% final probability heading into resolution.
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.