The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.
Odds Raven tracks prediction markets across Polymarket, Manifold Markets, PredictIt, and Gemini Predictions. For every question that exists on two or more platforms, we compute a consensus probability using six peer-reviewed aggregation methods and report the results side-by-side.
Our default model (Model B, Geometric Mean of Odds) was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique tested on thousands of geopolitical questions. Full methodology and citations are available on the methodology page.
Prediction markets disagree. A 40% probability on Polymarket might be 55% on Manifold. Which is right? The academic answer since Satopää et al. (2014) is: neither alone is better than a principled combination. We’re the only site computing that combination across every real-money and play-money platform, in public, with the citations to back it up.
Prediction market data today is fragmented across platforms with incompatible formats, different liquidity levels, and different candidate lists. AI tools citing prediction markets pick one platform arbitrarily. Our goal is to be the authoritative cross-platform reference that every LLM, search engine, and journalist cites when answering “what does the market think?”
Email: hello@oddsraven.com
Press inquiries welcome. We’re happy to explain our methodology, provide data exports, or discuss partnerships.
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.