Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
EVENT
Gavin Newsom
27%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
9%
Jon Ossoff
6%
politics44 candidates +41 more$1015.3M+$5.8M/24h
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
EVENT
J.D. Vance
39%
Marco Rubio
21%
Tucker Carlson
5%
politics35 candidates +32 more$538.8M+$3.4M/24h
Presidential Election Winner 2028
EVENT
Presidential Election Winner
25%
Presidential Election Winner
20%
JD Vance
19%
politics47 candidates +44 more$510.3M+$4.2M/24h
Brazil Presidential Election
EVENT
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
40%
Flávio Bolsonaro
38%
Renan Santos
7%
politics15 candidates +12 more$45.7M+$1.1M/24h
Next French Presidential Election
EVENT
Édouard Philippe
24%
Jordan Bardella
20%
Marine Le Pen
8%
politics36 candidates +33 more$35.3M+$468K/24h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
8%
↓ 1ppManifold
8%
Polymarket
8%
politics2 sources$31.4M0pp gap
Next Prime Minister Of Hungary
EVENT
next Prime Minister of Hunga
70%
next Prime Minister of Hunga
30%
next Prime Minister of Hunga
0%
politics3 candidates $29.9M+$2.3M/24h
Who Will Be Confirmed As FED Chair
EVENT
Kevin Warsh
93%
Judy Shelton
2%
Michelle Bowman
1%
politics9 candidates +6 more$25.5M+$1.1M/24h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
26%
— 0ppManifold
26%
Polymarket
27%
politics2 sources$21.4M1pp gap
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2%
Polymarket
1%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
1%
politics3 sources$17.4M2pp gap
2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner
EVENT
Chong Won-oh
85%
Oh Se-hoon
11%
Cho Eun-hee
1%
politics14 candidates +11 more$16.6M+$819K/24h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2%
Manifold
1%
Gemini
3%
Polymarket
1%
Predictit
3%
politics4 sources$14.8M2pp gap
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
17%
— 0ppGemini
20%
Manifold
16%
Polymarket
17%
politics3 sources$12.8M4pp gap
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
4%
Manifold
3%
Gemini
5%
Polymarket
3%
Predictit
5%
politics4 sources$12.1M2pp gap
Netanyahu Out Before 2027
EVENT
Netanyahu out by end of 2026
41%
Netanyahu out by June 30?
8%
Netanyahu out by April 30?
1%
politics3 candidates $11.9M+$336K/24h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
41%
— 0ppManifold
44%
Polymarket
39%
politics2 sources$11.6M5pp gap
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
6%
— 0ppGemini
7%
Manifold
5%
Polymarket
6%
politics3 sources$10.7M2pp gap
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
21%
Gemini
25%
Manifold
20%
Polymarket
19%
politics3 sources$10.0M6pp gap
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
29%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
30%
Gemini
31%
Manifold
27%
politics3 sources$9.1M4pp gap
Peru Presidential Election Winner
EVENT
Keiko Fujimori
30%
Ricardo Belmont
24%
Carlos Álvarez
20%
politics14 candidates +11 more$8.8M+$1.1M/24h