Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
4%
Polymarket
4%
geopoliticsPolymarket$39.5M
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
26%
Polymarket
28%
Manifold
21%
geopolitics2 sources$28.1M7pp gap
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
12%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
12%
geopoliticsPolymarket$22.5M
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
6%
Polymarket
6%
Manifold
10%
geopolitics2 sources$13.5M4pp gap
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
6%
Polymarket
6%
geopoliticsPolymarket$11.9M
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
7%
— 0ppPolymarket
7%
geopoliticsPolymarket$9.4M
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
34%
Polymarket
34%
geopoliticsPolymarket$9.0M
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
2%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
geopoliticsPolymarket$7.9M
Iran Leader End Of 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei
64%
Reza Pahlavi
8%
Abbas Araghchi
4%
geopolitics30 candidates +27 more$7.8M+$43K/24h
How Many Different Countries Will Israel Strike In 2026
Israel strike 5 countries in
36%
Israel strike 4 countries in
32%
Israel strike 6 countries in
19%
geopolitics12 candidates +9 more$4.6M+$10K/24h
Where Will The Next US Iran Diplomatic Meeting Happen
next diplomatic US-Iran meet
45%
no qualifying diplomatic US-
40%
geopolitics14 candidates +12 more$4.4M+$22K/24h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
3%
— 0ppPolymarket
3%
geopoliticsPolymarket$4.3M
Iran leadership change by December 31?
34%
Polymarket
34%
geopoliticsPolymarket$2.4M
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
43%
↑ 2ppManifold
52%
Polymarket
40%
geopolitics2 sources$2.0M12pp gap
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
24%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
24%
geopoliticsPolymarket$2.0M
Iran leadership change by May 31?
8%
Polymarket
8%
geopoliticsPolymarket$1.9M
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
30%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
26%
Manifold
45%
geopolitics2 sources$1.8M19pp gap
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
10%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
10%
geopoliticsPolymarket$1.8M
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
62%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
62%
geopoliticsPolymarket$1.7M
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
12%
Polymarket
12%
geopolitics1 sources$1.5M0pp gap