Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
23%
Polymarket
28%
Manifold
12%
geopolitics2 sources$28.1M15pp gap
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
6%
Manifold
10%
Polymarket
6%
geopolitics2 sources$13.5M4pp gap
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
7%
— 0ppPolymarket
7%
geopoliticsPolymarket$9.4M
Iran Leader End Of 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei
64%
Reza Pahlavi
8%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
4%
geopolitics30 candidates +27 more$7.8M+$43K/24h
How Many Different Countries Will Israel Strike In 2026
Israel strike 5 countries in
36%
Israel strike 4 countries in
32%
Israel strike 6 countries in
19%
geopolitics12 candidates +9 more$4.6M+$10K/24h
Iran leadership change by December 31?
34%
Polymarket
34%
geopoliticsPolymarket$2.4M
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
37%
↑ 2ppPolymarket
40%
Manifold
32%
geopolitics2 sources$2.0M8pp gap
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
24%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
24%
geopoliticsPolymarket$2.0M
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
10%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
10%
geopoliticsPolymarket$1.8M
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
62%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
62%
geopoliticsPolymarket$1.7M
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
12%
Polymarket
12%
geopolitics1 sources$1.5M0pp gap
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
6%
Polymarket
6%
geopoliticsPolymarket$1.4M
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
57%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
57%
geopoliticsPolymarket$1.3M
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
8%
— 0ppPolymarket
8%
geopoliticsPolymarket$985K
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
8%
Polymarket
8%
geopoliticsPolymarket$708K
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
16%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
16%
geopoliticsPolymarket$626K
Iran Nuke before 2027?
9%
— 0ppPolymarket
9%
geopoliticsPolymarket$602K
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
16%
↑ 0ppPolymarket
16%
geopoliticsPolymarket$571K
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
18%
↑ 0ppPolymarket
18%
geopoliticsPolymarket$561K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
26%
Polymarket
26%
geopoliticsPolymarket$549K