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US strike on Mexico by December 31?

21.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "US strike on Mexico by December 31?" has a probability of 21.5%. Trading volume: $551K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 11h ago
Volume
$551K
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$28K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
21.0% / 22.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" i…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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