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Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

19.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?" has a probability of 19.5%. Trading volume: $225K.

View on Polymarket →
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 1h ago
Volume
$225K
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$239K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
19.0% / 20.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Re…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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