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Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

6.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?" has a probability of 6.5%. Trading volume: $272K.

View on Polymarket →
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 1h ago
Volume
$272K
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$195K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
6.0% / 7.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Sep 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the R…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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