US strike on Cuba by December 31?
37%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
36%
Manifold
38%
geopolitics2 sources$881K2pp gap
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
6%
Polymarket
6%
geopoliticsPolymarket$870K
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
17%
Polymarket
16%
Manifold
19%
geopolitics2 sources$859K4pp gap
Israel Strike On Yemen By
EVENT
Israel strike on Yemen by Ju
38%
Israel strike on Yemen by Ma
29%
Israel strike on Yemen by Ap
25%
geopolitics4 candidates +1 more$779K+$25K/24h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
2%
↑ 2ppPolymarket
3%
Manifold
2%
geopolitics2 sources$775K2pp gap
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
19%
↑ 3ppPolymarket
19%
geopoliticsPolymarket$725K
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?
93%
↑ 8ppPolymarket
93%
geopoliticsPolymarket$712K
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
12%
— 0ppPolymarket
12%
geopoliticsPolymarket$682K
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
geopolitics2 sources$680K0pp gap
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
4%
— 0ppPolymarket
4%
geopoliticsPolymarket$660K
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?
9%
↓ 8ppPolymarket
9%
geopoliticsPolymarket$640K
How Many Different Countries Will The US Strike In 2026
EVENT
US strike 7 countries in 202
34%
US strike 8 countries in 202
27%
US strike 9 countries in 202
14%
geopolitics10 candidates +7 more$620K+$9K/24h
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?
7%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
7%
geopoliticsPolymarket$605K
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
14%
Polymarket
14%
geopoliticsPolymarket$584K
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
12%
↑ 2ppPolymarket
12%
geopoliticsPolymarket$568K
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
54%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
54%
geopoliticsPolymarket$558K
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
22%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
22%
geopoliticsPolymarket$551K
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
18%
Polymarket
18%
geopoliticsPolymarket$544K
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
92%
↑ 2ppPolymarket
92%
geopoliticsPolymarket$511K
Iran Nuke before 2027?
10%
Polymarket
10%
geopoliticsPolymarket$497K