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Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

24.0%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?" has a probability of 24.0%. Trading volume: $205K.

View on Polymarket →
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 1h ago
Volume
$205K
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$36K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
23.0% / 25.0%
Spread
2.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes o…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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