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Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

15.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?" has a probability of 15.5%. Trading volume: $60K.

View on Polymarket →
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 4h ago
Volume
$60K
Volume 24h
$257
Liquidity
$137K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
15.0% / 16.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jun 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republ…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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