Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
25%
Polymarket
28%
Manifold
18%
geopolitics2 sources$28.1M9pp gap
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
7%
— 0ppManifold
7%
Polymarket
7%
other2 sources$23.4M1pp gap
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
15%
Manifold
9%
Polymarket
18%
geopolitics2 sources$17.6M8pp gap
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
25%
↓ 0ppManifold
22%
Polymarket
26%
geopolitics2 sources$14.5M3pp gap
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
6%
Manifold
10%
Polymarket
6%
geopolitics2 sources$13.5M4pp gap
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
9%
↓ 2ppGemini
3%
Manifold
4%
Polymarket
14%
politics3 sources$10.1M12pp gap
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
45%
↑ 2ppPolymarket
40%
Manifold
63%
geopolitics2 sources$2.0M24pp gap
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
64%
— 0ppPolymarket
64%
Manifold
65%
geopolitics2 sources$1.9M1pp gap
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
24%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
26%
Manifold
18%
geopolitics2 sources$1.8M8pp gap
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
5%
Manifold
6%
geopolitics2 sources$1.1M2pp gap