Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
23%
Polymarket
28%
Manifold
12%
geopolitics2 sources$28.1M15pp gap
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
7%
— 0ppManifold
7%
Polymarket
7%
other2 sources$23.4M0pp gap
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
13%
Manifold
5%
Polymarket
18%
geopolitics2 sources$17.6M12pp gap
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
23%
↓ 0ppManifold
16%
Polymarket
26%
geopolitics2 sources$14.5M9pp gap
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
6%
Manifold
10%
Polymarket
6%
geopolitics2 sources$13.5M4pp gap
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
10%
↓ 2ppGemini
6%
Manifold
4%
Polymarket
14%
politics3 sources$10.1M10pp gap
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
37%
↑ 2ppPolymarket
40%
Manifold
32%
geopolitics2 sources$2.0M8pp gap
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
69%
— 0ppPolymarket
64%
Manifold
81%
geopolitics2 sources$1.9M17pp gap
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
5%
Manifold
6%
geopolitics2 sources$1.1M2pp gap