Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" has a consensus probability of 25.7%. Polymarket: 27.5%, Manifold: 20.7%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.