Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?" has a consensus probability of 22.3%. Manifold: 22.3%, Polymarket: 25.5%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.