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Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?

5.1%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
2 platforms · 2pp spread · $1.1M

Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?" has a consensus probability of 5.1%. Polymarket: 4.7%, Manifold: 6.3%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
View →
5%
$1.1M
Manifold
View →
6%
58 traders
Probability Over Time
All 4 Consensus Models
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 26d ago
Volume
$1.1M
Liquidity
$16K
Bid / Ask
4.5% / 4.9%
Spread
0.4%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://ww…
Manifold
Updated 23d ago
Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
—
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jan 2027

About This Consensus

Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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