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US strike on Cuba by December 31?

63.0%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
2 platforms · 0pp spread · $2.0M

Across 2 prediction market platforms, "US strike on Cuba by December 31?" has a consensus probability of 63.0%. Polymarket: 39.5%, Manifold: 63.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
View →
40%
$2.0M
Manifold
View →
63%
49 traders
Probability Over Time
All 4 Consensus Models
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 27d ago
Volume
$2.0M
Liquidity
$54K
Bid / Ask
39.0% / 40.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is …
Manifold
Updated 32m ago
Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
—
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jan 2027

About This Consensus

Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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