Home › Geopolitics › US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

17.4%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
2 platforms · 0pp spread · $1.8M

Across 2 prediction market platforms, "US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?" has a consensus probability of 17.4%. Polymarket: 26.0%, Manifold: 17.4%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
View →
26%
$1.8M
Manifold
View →
17%
93 traders
Probability Over Time
All 4 Consensus Models
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 27d ago
Volume
$1.8M
Liquidity
$32K
Bid / Ask
25.0% / 27.0%
Spread
2.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will r…
Manifold
Updated 3h ago
Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
—
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jun 2026

About This Consensus

Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

Odds Raven

The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.

Product
HomeConsensus 2+Multi-OutcomeChangelog
Learn
AboutInsightsMethodologyFAQAPI
Legal
PrivacyTermsContact
© 2026 Odds Raven · Data refreshed every 6 hours · peer-reviewed methodology