Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?
2%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
geopoliticsPolymarket$2.0M
Military Action Against Iran Ends On
EVENT
Military action against Iran
97%
Military action against Iran
2%
Military action against Iran
1%
geopolitics11 candidates +8 more$2.0M+$1.6M/24h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
18%
Polymarket
18%
geopoliticsPolymarket$1.7M
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
14%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
14%
geopoliticsPolymarket$1.6M
Iran leadership change by December 31?
42%
↓ 3ppPolymarket
42%
geopoliticsPolymarket$1.5M
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
7%
— 0ppPolymarket
4%
Gemini
8%
Manifold
10%
geopolitics3 sources$1.5M6pp gap
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
55%
↑ 5ppPolymarket
58%
Manifold
52%
geopolitics2 sources$1.4M7pp gap
Where Will The Next US Iran Diplomatic Meeting Happen
EVENT
next diplomatic US-Iran meet
95%
no qualifying diplomatic US-
3%
next diplomatic US-Iran meet
2%
geopolitics11 candidates +8 more$1.4M+$313K/24h
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?
2%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
Manifold
2%
geopolitics2 sources$1.4M0pp gap
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
20%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
20%
geopoliticsPolymarket$1.3M
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
8%
↓ 1ppPolymarket
8%
geopoliticsPolymarket$1.3M
Which Countries Will Send Warships Through The Strait Of Hormuz By April
EVENT
United States send warships
23%
United Kingdom send warships
12%
France send warships through
11%
geopolitics11 candidates +8 more$1.2M+$70K/24h
U
US strike on Cuba by March 31?
10%
Polymarket
2%
Manifold
38%
geopolitics2 sources$1.2M36pp gap
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
4%
Manifold
7%
geopolitics2 sources$1.1M3pp gap
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
34%
Polymarket
44%
Manifold
25%
geopolitics2 sources$1.0M18pp gap
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
4%
— 0ppPolymarket
4%
geopoliticsPolymarket$1.0M
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
9%
↓ 2ppManifold
8%
Polymarket
9%
other2 sources$1.0M1pp gap
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
41%
↑ 11ppPolymarket
41%
geopoliticsPolymarket$996K
Which Cities Will Russia Enter By June
EVENT
Russia enter Dopropillia by
32%
Russia enter Druzkhivka by J
14%
Russia enter Sloviansk by Ju
14%
geopolitics8 candidates +5 more$931K+$2K/24h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
geopoliticsPolymarket$917K