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Iran nuclear test before 2027?

7.5%

Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Iran nuclear test before 2027?" has a probability of 7.5%. Trading volume: $155K.

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Probability Over Time

Market Details

Polymarket

Updated 1h ago

Volume

$155K

Volume 24h

$3K

Liquidity

$49K

Traders

—

Bid / Ask

7.0% / 8.0%

Spread

1.0%

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Dec 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission …

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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