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Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

19.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?" has a probability of 19.5%. Trading volume: $1.3M.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 11h ago
Volume
$1.3M
Volume 24h
$8K
Liquidity
$75K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
19.0% / 20.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de f…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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