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China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

13.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?" has a probability of 13.5%. Trading volume: $1.6M.

View on Polymarket →
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 11h ago
Volume
$1.6M
Volume 24h
$12K
Liquidity
$78K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
13.0% / 14.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "mili…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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