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Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?

4.2%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?" has a probability of 4.2%. Trading volume: $2.4M.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 9h ago
Volume
$2.4M
Volume 24h
—
Liquidity
$11K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
3.2% / 5.1%
Spread
1.9%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve…

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This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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