Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
13%
Manifold
8%
Polymarket
14%
other2 sources$28.9M6pp gap
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
24%
Manifold
21%
Predictit
24%
Polymarket
24%
politics3 sources$25.2M3pp gap
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
16%
Predictit
19%
Polymarket
17%
Gemini
14%
Manifold
14%
politics4 sources$16.5M5pp gap
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
3%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
Manifold
4%
Predictit
5%
politics3 sources$15.1M3pp gap
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
36%
↓ 0ppManifold
35%
Predictit
37%
Polymarket
36%
politics3 sources$12.9M2pp gap
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
18%
Predictit
23%
Polymarket
19%
Manifold
17%
Gemini
14%
politics4 sources$12.1M9pp gap
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
3%
Predictit
6%
Polymarket
3%
Manifold
4%
politics3 sources$11.9M3pp gap
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
2%
Gemini
2%
politics3 sources$10.8M1pp gap
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
14%
— 0ppPolymarket
13%
Predictit
17%
Gemini
18%
Manifold
16%
politics4 sources$9.9M5pp gap
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
5%
— 0ppManifold
6%
Polymarket
5%
Predictit
6%
politics3 sources$8.0M1pp gap
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
Gemini
7%
Manifold
2%
Predictit
2%
politics4 sources$7.9M5pp gap
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
5%
Gemini
6%
Manifold
4%
Predictit
6%
politics4 sources$7.4M2pp gap
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
4%
— 0ppManifold
4%
Gemini
6%
Predictit
5%
Polymarket
3%
politics4 sources$6.4M3pp gap
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
44%
↑ 4ppPolymarket
42%
Manifold
42%
Gemini
42%
Predictit
54%
politics4 sources$5.4M13pp gap
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
36%
↓ 10ppManifold
29%
Polymarket
33%
Gemini
30%
Predictit
65%
politics4 sources$5.3M36pp gap
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
Predictit
4%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
3%
politics4 sources$4.4M2pp gap
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
19%
↑ 7ppPolymarket
32%
Predictit
2%
Gemini
16%
politics3 sources$3.4M30pp gap
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
34%
Predictit
24%
Polymarket
36%
Manifold
35%
politics3 sources$3.3M12pp gap
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
98%
— 0ppPredictit
96%
Gemini
97%
Polymarket
99%
Manifold
99%
politics4 sources$1.8M3pp gap
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
44%
Polymarket
44%
Manifold
50%
Predictit
38%
politics3 sources$1.7M12pp gap