Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
12%
Manifold
6%
Polymarket
14%
other2 sources$28.9M9pp gap
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
22%
Manifold
18%
Predictit
19%
Polymarket
24%
politics3 sources$25.2M6pp gap
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
15%
Predictit
15%
Polymarket
17%
Gemini
9%
Manifold
12%
politics4 sources$16.5M8pp gap
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
3%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
Manifold
5%
Predictit
5%
politics3 sources$15.1M3pp gap
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
Manifold
3%
Polymarket
2%
Predictit
3%
politics3 sources$14.2M2pp gap
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
38%
↓ 0ppManifold
43%
Predictit
41%
Polymarket
36%
politics3 sources$12.9M7pp gap
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
19%
Predictit
21%
Polymarket
19%
Manifold
19%
Gemini
19%
politics4 sources$12.1M2pp gap
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
3%
Manifold
4%
Predictit
5%
Polymarket
3%
politics3 sources$11.9M2pp gap
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
9%
— 0ppPolymarket
9%
Manifold
7%
Predictit
12%
politics3 sources$11.6M5pp gap
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
8%
Predictit
17%
Polymarket
6%
Manifold
12%
politics3 sources$11.1M11pp gap
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
Manifold
1%
Gemini
2%
politics3 sources$10.8M1pp gap
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
Polymarket
1%
Manifold
0%
Predictit
2%
politics3 sources$10.3M2pp gap
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
13%
— 0ppPolymarket
13%
Predictit
13%
Gemini
12%
Manifold
12%
politics4 sources$9.9M1pp gap
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
Predictit
2%
Manifold
1%
Polymarket
1%
politics3 sources$9.2M1pp gap
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2%
Manifold
2%
Polymarket
2%
Predictit
3%
politics3 sources$8.1M1pp gap
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
5%
— 0ppManifold
6%
Polymarket
5%
Predictit
7%
politics3 sources$8.0M2pp gap
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
1%
Predictit
2%
politics4 sources$7.9M2pp gap
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
5%
Gemini
5%
Manifold
3%
Predictit
4%
politics4 sources$7.4M2pp gap
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3%
— 0ppManifold
3%
Gemini
3%
Polymarket
3%
Predictit
4%
politics4 sources$6.4M1pp gap
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
54%
↑ 4ppPolymarket
42%
Manifold
60%
Gemini
64%
Predictit
85%
politics4 sources$5.4M42pp gap