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Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?

98.7%

Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)

4 platforms · 0pp spread · $1.8M

Across 4 prediction market platforms, "Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?" has a consensus probability of 98.7%. Predictit: 99.0%, Gemini: 97.0%, Polymarket: 98.6%, Manifold: 99.1%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus

Predictit
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99%

Gemini
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97%

$837

Polymarket
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99%

$1.8M

Manifold
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99%

8 traders

Probability Over Time

All 4 Consensus Models

Market Details

Predictit

Updated 5h ago

Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

May 2026

Resolves

—

Gemini

Updated 5h ago

Volume

$837

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Jun 2026

Polymarket

Updated 12d ago

Volume

$1.8M

Liquidity

$33K

Bid / Ask

98.5% / 98.6%

Spread

0.1%

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Jul 2026

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Maine. If no 2026 Maine Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of …

Manifold

Updated 23d ago

Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Nov 2026

About This Consensus

Computed from 4 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →