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Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

18.4%

Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)

4 platforms · 0pp spread · $12.1M

Across 4 prediction market platforms, "Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" has a consensus probability of 18.4%. Predictit: 21.0%, Polymarket: 18.6%, Manifold: 18.4%, Gemini: 18.5%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus

Predictit
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21%

$29K

Polymarket
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19%

$12.0M

Manifold
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18%

1252 traders

Gemini
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18%

$51K

Probability Over Time

All 4 Consensus Models

Market Details

Predictit

Updated 3h ago

Volume

$29K

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Jun 2026

Resolves

—

Polymarket

Updated 72d ago

Volume

$12.0M

Liquidity

$1.2M

Bid / Ask

18.6% / 18.7%

Spread

0.1%

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Nov 2028

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once a…

Manifold

Updated 3h ago

Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Nov 2028

Gemini

Updated 3h ago

Volume

$51K

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Nov 2028

About This Consensus

Computed from 4 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →