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Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

3.3%

Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)

4 platforms · 5pp spread · $7.9M

Across 4 prediction market platforms, "Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" has a consensus probability of 3.3%. Polymarket: 2.5%, Gemini: 7.0%, Manifold: 1.6%, Predictit: 2.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus

Polymarket
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$7.8M

Gemini
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$44K

Manifold
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940 traders

Predictit
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$2K

Probability Over Time

All 4 Consensus Models

Market Details

Polymarket

Updated 26d ago

Volume

$7.8M

Liquidity

$581K

Bid / Ask

2.4% / 2.6%

Spread

0.2%

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Nov 2028

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once a…

Gemini

Updated 5h ago

Volume

$44K

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Nov 2028

Manifold

Updated 5h ago

Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Nov 2028

Predictit

Updated 5h ago

Volume

$2K

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

—

About This Consensus

Computed from 4 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →