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Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

16.7%

Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)

4 platforms · 2pp spread · $9.9M

Across 4 prediction market platforms, "Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" has a consensus probability of 16.7%. Polymarket: 12.9%, Predictit: 17.0%, Gemini: 17.5%, Manifold: 16.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus

Polymarket
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13%

$9.8M

Predictit
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17%

$24K

Gemini
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18%

$44K

Manifold
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16%

890 traders

Probability Over Time

All 4 Consensus Models

Market Details

Polymarket

Updated 26d ago

Volume

$9.8M

Liquidity

$158K

Bid / Ask

12.8% / 13.0%

Spread

0.2%

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Nov 2028

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once a…

Predictit

Updated 4h ago

Volume

$24K

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Jun 2026

Resolves

—

Gemini

Updated 4h ago

Volume

$44K

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Nov 2028

Manifold

Updated 4h ago

Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Nov 2028

About This Consensus

Computed from 4 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →