2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
35%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
34%
Predictit
40%
Manifold
35%
politics3 sources$1.4M6pp gap
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
9%
↓ 3ppGemini
10%
Predictit
9%
Polymarket
9%
politics3 sources$1.3M2pp gap
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
3%
— 0ppPolymarket
3%
Manifold
6%
Gemini
1%
politics3 sources$1.2M5pp gap
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?
4%
Polymarket
5%
Manifold
4%
Gemini
1%
politics3 sources$1.2M4pp gap
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
62%
↓ 1ppManifold
86%
Predictit
85%
Polymarket
44%
Gemini
84%
politics4 sources$1.1M42pp gap
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
29%
Predictit
19%
Polymarket
40%
Manifold
14%
Gemini
16%
politics4 sources$978K26pp gap
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
25%
Polymarket
24%
Gemini
32%
Manifold
27%
politics3 sources$904K9pp gap
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?
3%
Polymarket
2%
Predictit
2%
Gemini
5%
politics3 sources$791K3pp gap
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
59%
↓ 1ppManifold
59%
Polymarket
60%
politics2 sources$752K0pp gap
Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
3%
Polymarket
3%
Manifold
2%
Predictit
3%
Gemini
7%
politics4 sources$724K5pp gap
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
10%
Manifold
11%
Polymarket
10%
Gemini
10%
politics3 sources$553K2pp gap
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
10%
↑ 3ppManifold
11%
Polymarket
10%
politics2 sources$552K2pp gap
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
6%
Polymarket
6%
Gemini
8%
Manifold
7%
politics3 sources$527K2pp gap
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
1%
Predictit
2%
Gemini
28%
Polymarket
1%
Manifold
0%
politics4 sources$449K28pp gap
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
12%
↑ 0ppPredictit
9%
Polymarket
10%
Manifold
6%
Gemini
50%
politics4 sources$394K44pp gap
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
89%
Predictit
94%
Polymarket
88%
Manifold
91%
Gemini
88%
politics4 sources$130K6pp gap
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
60%
↓ 2ppPredictit
69%
Polymarket
54%
Manifold
68%
politics3 sources$124K15pp gap
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?
14%
Manifold
8%
Predictit
16%
Polymarket
16%
politics3 sources$88K8pp gap
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
17%
↑ 1ppManifold
17%
Predictit
19%
Polymarket
16%
politics3 sources$45K2pp gap
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
18%
Predictit
10%
Polymarket
26%
Manifold
8%
politics3 sources$44K17pp gap