Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
31%
↓ 10ppManifold
25%
Polymarket
33%
Gemini
32%
Predictit
25%
politics4 sources$5.3M8pp gap
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
7%
↑ 1ppGemini
4%
Manifold
10%
Polymarket
7%
politics3 sources$4.9M6pp gap
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
Predictit
4%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
2%
politics4 sources$4.4M2pp gap
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
19%
↑ 7ppPolymarket
32%
Predictit
2%
Gemini
16%
politics3 sources$3.4M30pp gap
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
37%
Predictit
46%
Polymarket
36%
Manifold
29%
politics3 sources$3.3M17pp gap
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
44%
Polymarket
44%
Manifold
49%
Predictit
43%
politics3 sources$1.7M6pp gap
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
35%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
34%
Predictit
40%
Manifold
38%
politics3 sources$1.4M6pp gap
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
7%
↓ 3ppGemini
4%
Predictit
5%
Polymarket
9%
politics3 sources$1.3M5pp gap
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
4%
— 0ppPolymarket
3%
Manifold
4%
Gemini
4%
politics3 sources$1.3M1pp gap
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?
3%
— 0ppPolymarket
3%
Predictit
2%
Gemini
3%
politics3 sources$1.3M1pp gap
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?
4%
Polymarket
5%
Manifold
3%
Gemini
2%
politics3 sources$1.2M2pp gap
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
8%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
18%
Gemini
18%
Manifold
0%
politics3 sources$1.2M18pp gap
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
16%
Manifold
4%
Polymarket
24%
politics2 sources$891K19pp gap
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?
3%
Polymarket
2%
Predictit
2%
Gemini
5%
politics3 sources$791K3pp gap
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
59%
↓ 1ppManifold
58%
Polymarket
60%
politics2 sources$752K1pp gap
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
11%
Manifold
11%
Polymarket
10%
Gemini
12%
politics3 sources$605K1pp gap
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
10%
↑ 3ppManifold
10%
Polymarket
10%
politics2 sources$552K1pp gap
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
8%
Polymarket
6%
Manifold
26%
politics2 sources$513K20pp gap
2028 Democratic Nominee for President? — Gavin Newsom
16%
Manifold
17%
Gemini
16%
politics2 sources$99K2pp gap
2028 Democratic Nominee for President? — Josh Shapiro
4%
Manifold
4%
Gemini
6%
politics2 sources$99K2pp gap