Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2%
Manifold
1%
Polymarket
1%
Predictit
3%
politics3 sources$5.7M2pp gap
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
4%
Gemini
4%
Manifold
6%
Polymarket
2%
Predictit
5%
politics4 sources$5.7M4pp gap
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
44%
↓ 1ppGemini
42%
Manifold
50%
Polymarket
40%
politics3 sources$4.4M10pp gap
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
Manifold
1%
Gemini
3%
Polymarket
1%
Predictit
2%
politics4 sources$4.2M2pp gap
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
36%
↑ 1ppGemini
40%
Manifold
30%
Polymarket
38%
politics3 sources$3.9M10pp gap
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
6%
— 0ppPolymarket
7%
Gemini
9%
Manifold
4%
politics3 sources$3.9M5pp gap
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
2%
Polymarket
2%
Predictit
4%
politics4 sources$3.8M2pp gap
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
9%
Manifold
7%
Polymarket
10%
other2 sources$3.6M4pp gap
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
4%
Gemini
6%
Manifold
4%
politics3 sources$3.4M2pp gap
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
5%
Gemini
7%
Manifold
4%
politics3 sources$3.3M3pp gap
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
56%
↓ 1ppManifold
38%
Gemini
85%
Polymarket
36%
politics3 sources$3.1M48pp gap
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
30%
↓ 2ppGemini
36%
Polymarket
25%
politics2 sources$2.7M11pp gap
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
88%
Manifold
89%
Polymarket
86%
politics2 sources$2.2M3pp gap
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
91%
↓ 1ppManifold
90%
Gemini
93%
Polymarket
90%
politics3 sources$1.5M3pp gap
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
12%
↓ 4ppManifold
10%
Polymarket
13%
politics2 sources$1.3M3pp gap
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
52%
Manifold
51%
Polymarket
52%
politics2 sources$1.3M2pp gap
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
8%
— 0ppGemini
9%
Polymarket
9%
Predictit
7%
politics3 sources$770K2pp gap
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
60%
Manifold
59%
Polymarket
60%
politics2 sources$710K1pp gap
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
3%
↓ 1ppManifold
8%
Polymarket
1%
Predictit
3%
politics3 sources$707K7pp gap
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?
3%
↓ 1ppGemini
5%
Polymarket
1%
Predictit
6%
politics3 sources$679K5pp gap