Across 4 prediction market platforms, "Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?" has a consensus probability of 15.7%. Predictit: 2.0%, Gemini: 28.0%, Polymarket: 0.8%, Manifold: 0.1%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 4 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.