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Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

14.0%

Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)

4 platforms · 1pp spread · $978K

Across 4 prediction market platforms, "Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?" has a consensus probability of 14.0%. Predictit: 19.0%, Polymarket: 39.5%, Manifold: 15.0%, Gemini: 13.5%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus

Predictit
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19%

$584

Polymarket
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40%

$968K

Manifold
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15%

29 traders

Gemini
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14%

$9K

Probability Over Time

All 4 Consensus Models

Market Details

Predictit

Updated 21m ago

Volume

$584

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Jun 2026

Resolves

—

Polymarket

Updated 27d ago

Volume

$968K

Liquidity

$59K

Bid / Ask

39.0% / 40.0%

Spread

1.0%

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Jun 2026

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this electi…

Manifold

Updated 31m ago

Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Dec 2026

Gemini

Updated 32m ago

Volume

$9K

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Jun 2026

About This Consensus

Computed from 4 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →