Across 3 prediction market platforms, "Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?" has a consensus probability of 39.2%. Gemini: 40.0%, Manifold: 39.5%, Polymarket: 38.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 3 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.