Across 4 prediction market platforms, "Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?" has a consensus probability of 3.0%. Manifold: 1.5%, Gemini: 7.0%, Polymarket: 1.8%, Predictit: 4.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 4 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.