Across 4 prediction market platforms, "Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?" has a consensus probability of 1.8%. Polymarket: 3.0%, Manifold: 1.5%, Predictit: 3.0%, Gemini: 1.5%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 4 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.