Across 3 prediction market platforms, "Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?" has a consensus probability of 17.7%. Manifold: 15.9%, Gemini: 20.0%, Polymarket: 17.5%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 3 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.