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Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

92.1%

Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)

4 platforms · 3pp spread · $130K

Across 4 prediction market platforms, "Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?" has a consensus probability of 92.1%. Predictit: 94.0%, Polymarket: 87.5%, Manifold: 91.4%, Gemini: 88.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus

Predictit
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94%

Polymarket
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88%

$116K

Manifold
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91%

30 traders

Gemini
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88%

$14K

Probability Over Time

All 4 Consensus Models

Market Details

Predictit

Updated 2h ago

Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Jun 2026

Resolves

—

Polymarket

Updated 26d ago

Volume

$116K

Liquidity

$21K

Bid / Ask

87.0% / 88.0%

Spread

1.0%

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Aug 2026

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this m…

Manifold

Updated 3h ago

Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Aug 2026

Gemini

Updated 3h ago

Volume

$14K

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Aug 2026

About This Consensus

Computed from 4 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →