Across 3 prediction market platforms, "2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House" has a consensus probability of 42.2%. Polymarket: 43.5%, Manifold: 42.2%, Predictit: 40.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 3 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.