Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?" has a consensus probability of 13.0%. Manifold: 9.3%, Polymarket: 14.5%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.