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Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

14.2%

Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)

4 platforms · 0pp spread · $16.5M

Across 4 prediction market platforms, "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" has a consensus probability of 14.2%. Predictit: 19.0%, Polymarket: 16.7%, Gemini: 14.0%, Manifold: 14.3%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus

Predictit
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19%

$28K

Polymarket
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17%

$16.4M

Gemini
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14%

$44K

Manifold
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14%

979 traders

Probability Over Time

All 4 Consensus Models

Market Details

Predictit

Updated 3h ago

Volume

$28K

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Jun 2026

Resolves

—

Polymarket

Updated 27d ago

Volume

$16.4M

Liquidity

$288K

Bid / Ask

16.6% / 16.7%

Spread

0.1%

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Nov 2028

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once a…

Gemini

Updated 3h ago

Volume

$44K

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Nov 2028

Manifold

Updated 3h ago

Volume

—

Liquidity

—

Bid / Ask

— / —

Spread

—

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Nov 2028

About This Consensus

Computed from 4 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →