California Governor Election 2026
EVENT
Eric Swalwell
42%
Tom Steyer
25%
Steve Hilton
9%
politics23 candidates +20 more$8.7M+$111K/24h
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
73%
↑ 1ppPolymarket
70%
Gemini
76%
Manifold
73%
politics3 sources$8.5M6pp gap
Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner
EVENT
Ken Paxton
61%
John Cornyn
36%
Dawn Buckingham
0%
politics3 candidates $8.2M+$23K/24h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
5%
— 0ppManifold
4%
Polymarket
5%
Predictit
6%
politics3 sources$7.9M2pp gap
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1%
Manifold
1%
Polymarket
1%
Gemini
3%
politics3 sources$7.8M2pp gap
Colombia Presidential Election
EVENT
Paloma Valencia
41%
Ivan Cepeda Castro
36%
Abelardo de la Espriella
22%
politics10 candidates +7 more$7.6M+$103K/24h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
22%
— 0ppManifold
24%
Polymarket
21%
politics2 sources$7.5M2pp gap
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3%
— 0ppGemini
7%
Manifold
2%
Polymarket
2%
Predictit
3%
politics4 sources$6.9M5pp gap
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
2%
Manifold
4%
politics3 sources$6.8M3pp gap
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
4%
Gemini
4%
Manifold
3%
Polymarket
3%
Predictit
5%
politics4 sources$6.8M2pp gap
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3%
Manifold
2%
Gemini
5%
Polymarket
2%
Predictit
5%
politics4 sources$6.8M3pp gap
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2%
Manifold
3%
Gemini
4%
Polymarket
2%
Predictit
2%
politics4 sources$6.2M2pp gap
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
11%
— 0ppGemini
13%
Manifold
10%
Polymarket
9%
politics3 sources$5.9M4pp gap
Trump out as President by April 30?
1%
— 0ppPolymarket
1%
politicsPolymarket$5.8M
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2%
Manifold
1%
Polymarket
1%
Predictit
3%
politics3 sources$5.7M2pp gap
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
4%
Gemini
4%
Manifold
6%
Polymarket
2%
Predictit
5%
politics4 sources$5.7M4pp gap
Which Party Will Gain Most Seats In Russian Parliamentary Election
EVENT
United Russia (ER) gain the
68%
New People (NL) gain the mos
25%
Liberal Democratic Party of
5%
politics7 candidates +4 more$5.2M+$5K/24h
Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner
EVENT
TISZA – Respect and Freedom
76%
Fidesz–KDNP
24%
politics2 candidates $4.8M+$519K/24h
Where Will Trump And Putin Meet Next
EVENT
Trump and Putin not meet?
85%
Trump and Putin meet next in
3%
Trump and Putin meet next in
2%
politics15 candidates +12 more$4.8M+$79K/24h
Balance Of Power 2026 Midterms
EVENT
2026 Balance of Power: D Sen
52%
2026 Balance of Power: R Sen
36%
2026 Balance of Power: R Sen
12%
politics5 candidates +2 more$4.7M+$78K/24h