Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
16%
Polymarket
17%
Gemini
16%
Manifold
15%
politics3 sources$16.4M2pp gap
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
5%
Polymarket
5%
Gemini
6%
Manifold
5%
sports3 sources$16.3M1pp gap
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
Manifold
1%
Gemini
4%
sports3 sources$16.2M3pp gap
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2%
Polymarket
2%
Gemini
4%
Manifold
1%
sports3 sources$15.3M3pp gap
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
37%
↓ 0ppManifold
42%
Polymarket
36%
politics2 sources$12.8M5pp gap
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
19%
Polymarket
19%
Manifold
19%
Gemini
18%
politics3 sources$12.0M1pp gap
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
13%
— 0ppPolymarket
13%
Gemini
16%
Manifold
13%
politics3 sources$9.9M4pp gap
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3%
— 0ppPolymarket
2%
Gemini
7%
Manifold
2%
Predictit
2%
politics4 sources$7.9M5pp gap
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5%
— 0ppPolymarket
5%
Gemini
6%
Manifold
4%
Predictit
4%
politics4 sources$7.4M3pp gap
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
42%
↑ 4ppPolymarket
42%
Manifold
41%
Gemini
40%
politics3 sources$5.4M2pp gap
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
31%
↓ 10ppManifold
27%
Polymarket
33%
Gemini
28%
politics3 sources$5.3M6pp gap
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
81%
Manifold
86%
Predictit
98%
Polymarket
60%
Gemini
95%
politics4 sources$4.7M38pp gap
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
21%
↑ 1ppManifold
14%
Predictit
2%
Polymarket
40%
Gemini
7%
politics4 sources$3.3M38pp gap
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
99%
— 0ppPredictit
99%
Gemini
97%
Polymarket
99%
Manifold
99%
politics4 sources$1.8M2pp gap
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
45%
Polymarket
44%
Manifold
50%
politics2 sources$1.7M6pp gap
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
53%
↓ 1ppManifold
70%
Polymarket
44%
Gemini
72%
politics3 sources$1.1M29pp gap
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
35%
Polymarket
40%
Manifold
26%
Gemini
27%
politics3 sources$976K14pp gap
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
60%
↓ 1ppManifold
60%
Polymarket
60%
politics2 sources$752K0pp gap
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
1%
Gemini
28%
Polymarket
1%
Manifold
0%
politics3 sources$448K28pp gap
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
12%
↑ 0ppPredictit
6%
Polymarket
10%
Manifold
9%
Gemini
50%
politics4 sources$394K44pp gap