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Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament?

3.8%
Consensus Probability (Model B — Geometric Mean of Odds)
2 platforms · 2pp spread · $4.0M

Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament?" has a consensus probability of 3.8%. Polymarket: 2.9%, Gemini: 5.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
View →
3%
$4.0M
Gemini
View →
5%
Probability Over Time
All 6 Consensus Models
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 9h ago
Volume
$4.0M
Liquidity
$42K
Bid / Ask
2.9% / 3.0%
Spread
0.1%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Apr 2026
This polymarket will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 Masters Tournament. If this player is eliminated from contention for The Masters based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No". In the event of a tie, this market wi…
Gemini
Updated 45m ago
Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
—
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Apr 2026

About This Consensus

Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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