Across 3 prediction market platforms, "Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?" has a consensus probability of 96.5%. Polymarket: 96.1%, Gemini: 99.0%, Manifold: 89.8%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 3 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.