Across 3 prediction market platforms, "Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?" has a consensus probability of 23.7%. Polymarket: 24.5%, Gemini: 27.0%, Manifold: 19.9%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 3 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.