MethodologyAPI
Home › Other › 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

5.1%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?" has a probability of 5.1%. Trading volume: $103K.

View on Polymarket →
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 4h ago
Volume
$103K
Volume 24h
$122
Liquidity
$12K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
3.3% / 6.9%
Spread
3.6%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resol…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

Odds Raven

The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.

Product
HomeConsensus 2+Multi-OutcomeChangelog
Learn
AboutMethodologyFAQAPI
Legal
PrivacyTermsContact
© 2026 Odds Raven · Data refreshed every 6 hours · peer-reviewed methodology