On Manifold Markets, "2026 U.S. Stock Market: How will the S&P500 performance in 2026? — Down 4% or less" has a probability of 19.1%.
View on Manifold Markets →This question is currently tracked on Manifold Markets only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.