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5kt meteor strike in 2026?

41.5%

Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "5kt meteor strike in 2026?" has a probability of 41.5%. Trading volume: $287K.

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Probability Over Time

Market Details

Polymarket

Updated 2h ago

Volume

$287K

Volume 24h

$46

Liquidity

$10K

Traders

—

Bid / Ask

41.0% / 42.0%

Spread

1.0%

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

Dec 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Th…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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