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Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?

4.8%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?" has a probability of 4.8%. Trading volume: $4K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 1h ago
Volume
$4K
Volume 24h
$692
Liquidity
$26K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
4.6% / 5.0%
Spread
0.4%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Adam Back is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying evidence includes, but is not li…

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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