On Manifold Markets, "AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033 — Hyperexponential (indicates push for ASI and some real self improvement loop) singularity / intelligence explosion" has a probability of 23.9%.
View on Manifold Markets →This question is currently tracked on Manifold Markets only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.