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Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

7.5%
Probability on Polymarket

On Polymarket, "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?" has a probability of 7.5%. Trading volume: $716K.

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Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 3h ago
Volume
$716K
Volume 24h
$9K
Liquidity
$72K
Traders
—
Bid / Ask
7.0% / 8.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Apr 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. …

Single Platform Data

This question is currently tracked on Polymarket only. When the same question appears on additional platforms, we compute a cross-platform consensus probability. Learn about our methodology →

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